The foreign trade structure is better and the motivation is more sufficient.
In 2023, facing the complicated and severe external environment, China took active measures to promote the stable scale and excellent structure of foreign trade. On the previous high base, the export achieved positive growth, the foreign trade operation was generally stable, and the goal of promoting stability and improving quality was achieved, demonstrating strong resilience. At present, the favorable conditions for the development of China’s foreign trade are stronger than the unfavorable factors, so we should seize the opportunity to push forward the construction of a trade power to a new level.
Stand up to the pressure and stabilize the scale
In 2023, the total import and export volume of goods in China was 41.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2% over the previous year. Import and export balance, trade surplus of 5.79 trillion yuan. The export scale has increased steadily and slightly, and the quality of foreign trade has improved steadily.
Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that horizontally, China’s foreign trade growth performance is better than that of major export-oriented economies. Against the background of unstable world economic recovery, insufficient kinetic energy and weak external demand, China’s international market share is basically stable, especially the trade activity remains at a high level, which shows the strong resilience of the economy.
"In 2023, China’s exports reached a new high on a high base, which not only achieved a reasonable increase in quantity, but also maintained the overall stability of its share, and achieved a qualitative and effective improvement in terms of growth momentum and regional pattern." Lu Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistical Analysis Department, said.
From the perspective of exports, the global export share has remained stable at a high level, and the competitive advantage of manufacturing in China remains stable. The WTO predicts that the international market share of China’s exports will remain at a high level of around 14% in 2023. At the same time, the export of independent brands increased significantly, accounting for 1.7 percentage points of the total export value. Our own brand products have been exported to more than 200 countries and regions around the world. In addition, the export proportion of equipment manufacturing industry has increased, and a new pattern of regional opening has been accelerated.
From the perspective of imports, the decline of China’s import value in 2023 is affected by the downward trend of commodity prices, and the import volume is still increasing, reflecting the continuous recovery of China’s production and strong consumer demand. The successful holding of key exhibitions such as Consumer Expo, Canton Fair and China International Import Expo(CIIE) has provided new opportunities for global manufacturers to enter the China market. The imports of high-quality agricultural products such as fresh durian from Vietnam, fresh pear from South Africa, pitaya from Ecuador and avocado from Kenya are growing rapidly.
Structural optimization kinetic energy shift
Stabilizing the scale and improving the quality, the foreign trade structure presents many new highlights. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, said that the foreign trade export market is more diversified, the proportion of foreign trade mechanical and electrical products has steadily increased, and private enterprises have become the main force of foreign trade export.
The export kinetic energy "shifts gears" actively. In 2023, the export of "new three products" such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells totaled 1.06 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 30%. The new format is booming. The import and export of cross-border e-commerce increased by 15.6% and the export increased by 19.6%. At present, Chinese enterprises have built more than 2,400 overseas warehouses, covering an area of more than 25 million square meters. The vitality of new subjects In generate, the number of foreign trade business entities with import and export performance in China exceeded 600,000 for the first time, among which private enterprises performed outstandingly, with import and export increasing by 6.3%, accounting for 53.5%.
The characteristics of domestic and international double circulation promoting each other are more prominent. China’s super-large-scale market advantage appears, and the expansion of domestic demand drives imports. In 2023, the import of agricultural products increased by 5% over the previous year, and the import of energy products increased by 27.2%. The advantages of a sound industrial system and stable production capacity have been brought into full play, and the promotion of stability and quality by exports has driven the development of related industries in China.
In the past year, China’s trade relations with other countries in the world, especially with emerging markets, have become closer. "China actively expands international economic and trade cooperation and builds the" Belt and Road "with high quality. The scope of international circulation is broader and deeper." Kang Yi said. In 2023, the proportion of China’s import and export to the countries that jointly built the Belt and Road Initiative increased to 46.6%, and the import and export to Latin America and Africa increased by 6.8% and 7.1% respectively. The network of high-standard free trade zones continued to expand. In 2023, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) came into full force for 15 member countries. China also signed or upgraded free trade agreements with Ecuador, Nicaragua, Serbia, Singapore and other countries. The number of free trade partners has increased to 29, and the trade volume with free trade partners accounts for more than one third of the total foreign trade.
In addition, the discourse power and influence of China’s international economic and trade rules continue to increase. China has deeply participated in the reform of the WTO, put forward China’s plan many times, and led the completion of the text negotiation of the Agreement on Investment Facilitation for Development; Promote a number of economic and trade achievements under the mechanisms of G20, APEC, BRICS and SCO; Jointly with many countries, the International Economic and Trade Cooperation Framework Initiative for Digital Economy and Green Development was jointly issued.
Improve quality, increase efficiency and tap potential
At present, the development of foreign trade faces many difficulties and challenges, but the positive factors of stabilizing and improving are still gathering, and the potential of improving quality and efficiency of foreign trade is not small. We must resolutely implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, cultivate new kinetic energy of foreign trade, promote the digitalization and greening of trade, consolidate the basic disk of foreign trade and foreign investment, and accelerate the construction of a trade power.
China’s long-term positive economic fundamentals, strong production capacity, broad innovation space, super-large-scale market, perfect infrastructure and other advantages have laid the foundation for building a trade power.
Looking forward to 2024, there are many favorable conditions for the high-quality development of foreign trade. On the one hand, cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouses, bonded maintenance and other new formats and new models are booming, bringing new trade opportunities. At the same time, products that lead the transformation and upgrading of green and low carbon, such as "new three kinds" and energy storage products, meet the needs of global energy development, and smart products with digital empowerment, such as robots, are deeply loved by consumers and have great market space. On the other hand, with the upgrading of a series of free trade agreements and the achievements of the "One Belt, One Road" cooperation, multi-bilateral economic and trade cooperation will usher in a broader development space and continuously enhance the confidence of enterprises in exploring the international market.
In 2024, the continuous downturn of external demand is still the main factor restricting China’s export growth. At the same time, protectionism and unilateralism will also have an impact on China’s foreign trade. We should give full play to China’s comprehensive competitive advantage in foreign trade by increasing policy support, giving full play to industrial advantages and gathering efforts from all sides.
Wang Lingxun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, said that he believed that with the gradual emergence of policy effects and the steady advancement of high-level opening up, the cultivation of new kinetic energy for China’s trade development will be accelerated, the basic disk of foreign trade and foreign investment will continue to be consolidated, and the foundation for steady growth of imports and exports, quality improvement and efficiency increase will be further consolidated. (Reporter Feng Qiyu)